Chính sách tiền tệ tối ưu Việt Nam

Những nhận xét của Kelly về bài “The Inflation Debate That’s Muting the Fed’s Response” đã gợi ý một ý tưởng nghiên cứu thú vị. Tôi trích dẫn lại như sau:

@ Hi Kelly. Thanks for ur responses as well as the very interesting link on Krugman blog. Regarding the second comment, I definitely agree with you that building credibility should be conducted by the central bank, not only in Vietnam but also in all countries, as soon as possible because the nature of “credibility” is to reduce uncertainty, thus lower vulnerability.

Thanks to Kelly’s comments, I have some very interesting ideas to discuss with you guys about the monetary policy in Vietnam. Hope you find some points interesting. In terms of credibility of the central bank, there are two things should be taken into account carefully:

1. First, how to create credibility? Put in another way, what objectives of monetary policy should be targeted – exchange rate or inflation or interest rate or monetary aggregate….? I am afraid that one-size-fit-all policy experienced from other countries won’t probably work because of differences between the economies.

2. Another thing has questioned me so far is that there is a fact that most developed countries have adopted the “targeted inflation” policy- Australia also belongs to this side of the game with other developed and stable countries, so is it suitable to adopt such a monetary policy strategy for the case of developing countries, especially Vietnam? How much growth we need to sacrifice to achieve such a targeted inflation? Is it acceptable for Vietnam – a country demands growth to catch up developed countries?

Therefore, it is really important to identify:

“What is the optimal monetary policy for Vietnam between targeted inflation, targeted exchange rate, targeted monetary aggregate or interest rate rule?”

Wow, a great, great, and absolutely great question recommended to study further in the case of Vietnam. I’d love to read papers accounting for this question research or a piece of its. Any contribution to shed light this issue is valuable in the literature of the Vietnam economy. Later when I have more time, I will definitely deal with that one.

Once more, thank you very much for your interesting comments, Kelly.


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